5 days ago:[AI RESPONSE - Analysis]
Model: google/gemini-3-pro-preview
Length: 1922 chars
Based on the portfolio constraints and market data provided, here is the trading analysis:
**Market Data Analysis:**
The provided order book data indicates extreme illiquidity across **ALL** 20 available markets and current positions.
- Every market lists a **Best Ask** of $\ge$0.99 and a **Best Bid** of $\le$0.01 (or 0.001).
- The spreads are consistently $\ge$0.98.
- **Constraints Violation:** The trading restrictions explicitly state: "DO NOT trade on... Markets with spreads > $0.05".
- **Execution Viability:** Buying any option requires paying $\approx$0.99 for a max payout of $1.00. This offers a negligible return ($<1\%$) with disproportionate risk (99% capital at risk), resulting in negative expected value (EV) for any position not guaranteed with 100% certainty. The gap between the "Current Price" (e.g., $0.40$) and the "Best Ask" ($0.99$) makes entering new trades or adding to positions mathematically prohibitive.
- **Closing Positions:** Closing the current positions (Russia Ceasefire 'No' and OpenAI 'No') would require hitting the Best Bid of $\approx$0.01, realizing a near-100% loss (selling $\approx$0.50 value for 0.01). Holding is the only rational choice to preserve potential value.
**Research Note:**
While the "Current Date" is simulated as December 16, 2025, preventing real-time verification of events like the "Elon Musk tweet count" or "Epstein files release," the pricing data (Market prices vs. Bid/Ask) suggests market dislocation. However, even if an edge were identified via research, the 98-cent spread prevents capturing it.
**Conclusion:**
No actionable trades exist that satisfy the risk management parameters, EV thresholds, and spread limits defined in the instructions.
NO_ACTIONS|reason:All available markets and open positions exhibit spreads >$0.90 (Best Ask ~$0.99 / Best Bid ~$0.01), exceeding the $0.05 spread limit and making profitable execution impossible.
5 days ago:[AI PROMPT - Analysis]
You are a quantitative trading algorithm for prediction markets. Generate actionable trading recommendations only.
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PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
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- Wallet Address: 0xc9E63952863ddf5cC60ad317337755B79e440a6d
- Available Cash (USDC): $11.02
- Portfolio Value (in positions): $20.52
- Total Portfolio Value: $31.53
- Current Date: 2025-12-16
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CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS
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Total Positions: 2
Position 1:
- Market: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- Option: No
- Token ID: 27911616648163853231017805596118911526202185567944724228908312975649746722206
- Shares: 21.522
- Avg Price: $0.46
- Current Price: $0.485
- Current Value: $10.44
- Best Bid: $0.01
- Best Ask: $0.99
- P&L: +$0.54 (+5.44%)
- Order Book: Top 5 bids: $0.0100x4410, $0.0200x1600, $0.0300x6, $0.0500x2222, $0.0600x50 (38 total) | Top 5 asks: $0.9900x1606751, $0.9800x204000, $0.9700x100050, $0.9600x201607, $0.9500x41558 (48 total) | Spread: $0.9800
Position 2:
- Market: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
- Option: No
- Token ID: 95286602888911342401050506870419045522584469981654993778586844315860386218126
- Shares: 10.718
- Avg Price: $0.933
- Current Price: $0.9395
- Current Value: $10.07
- Best Bid: $0.001
- Best Ask: $0.999
- P&L: +$0.07 (+0.70%)
- Order Book: Top 5 bids: $0.0010x1242634, $0.0020x332768, $0.0030x91007, $0.0040x8192, $0.0050x31000 (131 total) | Top 5 asks: $0.9990x330250, $0.9980x37710, $0.9970x10977, $0.9960x2000, $0.9950x1505 (25 total) | Spread: $0.9980
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AVAILABLE MARKETS FOR NEW TRADES
================================================
Total Markets Available: 20
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Options:
- Yes: Current price $0.0345 | Token ID: 15974786252393396629980467963784550802583781222733347534844974829144359265969 | Best Bid:...
5 days ago:[AI PROMPT - Analysis]
You are a quantitative trading algorithm for prediction markets. Generate actionable trading recommendations only.
================================================
PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
================================================
- Wallet Address: 0xc9E63952863ddf5cC60ad317337755B79e440a6d
- Available Cash (USDC): $11.02
- Portfolio Value (in positions): $20.52
- Total Portfolio Value: $31.53
- Current Date: 2025-12-16
================================================
CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS
================================================
Total Positions: 2
Position 1:
- Market: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- Option: No
- Token ID: 27911616648163853231017805596118911526202185567944724228908312975649746722206
- Shares: 21.522
- Avg Price: $0.46
- Current Price: $0.485
- Current Value: $10.44
- Best Bid: $0.01
- Best Ask: $0.99
- P&L: +$0.54 (+5.44%)
- Order Book: Top 5 bids: $0.0100x4410, $0.0200x1600, $0.0300x6, $0.0500x2222, $0.0600x50 (39 total) | Top 5 asks: $0.9900x1606751, $0.9800x204000, $0.9700x100050, $0.9600x201607, $0.9500x41558 (48 total) | Spread: $0.9800
Position 2:
- Market: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
- Option: No
- Token ID: 95286602888911342401050506870419045522584469981654993778586844315860386218126
- Shares: 10.718
- Avg Price: $0.933
- Current Price: $0.9395
- Current Value: $10.07
- Best Bid: $0.001
- Best Ask: $0.999
- P&L: +$0.07 (+0.70%)
- Order Book: Top 5 bids: $0.0010x1242634, $0.0020x332768, $0.0030x91007, $0.0040x8192, $0.0050x31000 (131 total) | Top 5 asks: $0.9990x330250, $0.9980x37710, $0.9970x10977, $0.9960x2000, $0.9950x1505 (24 total) | Spread: $0.9980
================================================
AVAILABLE MARKETS FOR NEW TRADES
================================================
Total Markets Available: 20
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Options:
- Yes: Current price $0.0345 | Token ID: 15974786252393396629980467963784550802583781222733347534844974829144359265969 | Best Bid:...